ARI

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. NYQ · ARI

$6.78 -0.10 (-1.45%)

Deep pullback · -6.13σ Hot zone Grade C

+ Compare Open in Sniper

Mkt cap $0.9B

P/E 8.4

Day $6.78 – $6.92

52wk $6.75 – $11.24

Avg vol 3.4M

Beta 1.41

Div yld 14.75%

Next earnings 2026-04-28

Quick read

At a glance

ARI last traded at $6.78, down 1.4% on the day; that's in the lower part of its 52-week range ($6.75–$11.24). Right now it's stretched well below its recent average — historically the kind of washed-out level where bounces tend to start.

The next scheduled earnings report (2026-04-28) is the biggest known catalyst on the calendar, and after the recent dip, watch whether the price stops making lower lows before assuming the worst is over.

A quick snapshot built from the data on this page — not investment advice. Always do your own research.

Today's read

Grading desk →

Price is stretched far below its normal range — the deepest stretch tier, where snap-backs most often start.

Long C

Setup score 30 / 100

Price is stretched far below its normal range — the deepest stretch tier, where snap-backs most often start.

ℹ️ Deep stretch (KC3): stop is set wider to avoid a whipsaw, so the reward/risk reads lower (~1R) by design — not a worse trade.

· KC3 lower stretch — deepest mean-reversion tier
· Counter-trend long in breakout down

Technical read: KC3 lower (deep stretch), -6.76 ATR from EMA21 · no notable pattern

What it means: Price is stretched far below its normal range — the deepest stretch tier, where snap-backs most often start. The trigger bar shows no standout candle signal yet.

Score split: chart signals 30 / 80 · news & fundamentals checks 0 / 20 — chart signals carry most of the grade.

How this grade was earned

total 30 pts

Cycle position 30

Each bar shows how many points that factor added. The more points — and the more factors that agree — the higher the letter grade.

Short C

Setup score 29 / 100

Price is sitting close to its normal range — not meaningfully overheated yet. bearish engulfing candle.

· Bearish engulfing — body fully covers prior green bar
· Aligned with breakout down (strong tailwind)

Technical read: below KC1 upper, -6.76 ATR from EMA21 · bearish engulfing

What it means: Price is sitting close to its normal range — not meaningfully overheated yet. The trigger bar shows a bearish engulfing candle — selling fully swallowed the prior bar's buying.

Score split: chart signals 29 / 80 · news & fundamentals checks 0 / 20 — chart signals carry most of the grade.

How this grade was earned

total 29 pts

Cycle position 6

Candle signal 13

Market fit 10

Each bar shows how many points that factor added. The more points — and the more factors that agree — the higher the letter grade.

132-Day Trend Zones

Full chart →

21 EMA +1 ATR +2 ATR −2 ATR

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O — H — L — C —

— —

Under the hood

On the latest daily bar, momentum is washed out (RSI 15, oversold territory), the trend is strong (ADX 43), and trading is light at 0.5× normal volume. On the business side, revenue is growing 0% year over year and the business keeps about 16 cents of every sales dollar as free cash.

Latest-bar indicator readings behind the grade — display-only, they don't move the letter.

Momentum · RSI

0–100 · <30 oversold

Trend strength · ADX

>25 = strong trend

Volume vs avg

0.48×

1× = average

Stretch from avg

-6.8 ATR

− below · + above

Zone touches

tests of this zone

Suggested hold

3–30

bars (≈ days)

Fundamentals at a glance

Company fundamentals for context — display-only, they don't move the grade.

Revenue growth

+0.2%

year over year

Free-cash-flow margin

15.5%

cash kept per $ of sales

Debt / equity

4.50

lower = less leveraged

P/E ratio

8.6

price ÷ yearly profit

Valuation & accounting

Valuation desk →

Our cash-flow model pegs fair value near $-56.92 (fair range $-57–$15). The model's verdict is “Unknown” and accounting quality screens as Weak. Model estimates only — do your own due diligence.

Unknown Accounting: Weak

Intrinsic (DCF)

$-56.92

Fair-value range

$-56.92 – $14.58

Accounting quality Weak

✓ Gross margin 69% (pricing power)
✓ Net margin 47%

⚠ Debt exceeds cash
⚠ Debt/equity 4.33 (fragile)
⚠ Negative retained earnings

Price implies ~50% growth (vs trailing rev yoy). Model estimate — do your own due diligence.

Key statistics

All statistics →

ARI is a $888 million company, priced at 8× last year's earnings, and it moves harder than the market (beta 1.4); the stock is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range.

Market cap $0.9B

P/E ttm 8.4

Beta 1.41

52w range $6.75 – $11.24

Avg volume 3.4M

Dividend yield 14.75%

Sector Real Estate

Next earnings 2026-04-28

52-week range · today's price

$6.75$11.24

More on ARI

Options idea

See more →

CALL $10 2026-08-21

$0.00

PUT $8 2026-08-21

$0.00

Earnings

See more →

Last reported: 2026-04-28
EPS (act / est): 0.22 / 0.29
Surprise: -24.1%
Next report: 2026-07-29

About

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes…