Valuation desk

MSFT · Microsoft Corporation

Live multiples vs. 6-year history, DCF with real inputs, and a blended verdict on whether this name is cheap or rich.

← MSFT hub

Verdict

Undervalued High confidence blended from 6 signals

Spot $441.31 · Technology · P/E fair value +55.1% · Base scenario +55.2%

Best calls / puts → Chart

Multiples vs. own history

6y of year-end snapshots

P/E (TTM)

cheap

26.25x

24.5x low median 35.4x 38.6x high

P/S

cheap

10.30x

9.0x low median 12.8x 13.2x high

P/FCF

rich

88.57x

27.3x low median 44.6x 50.2x high

EV/EBITDA

cheap

18.03x

18.2x low median 23.3x 27.0x high

Bear · Base · Bull

P/E × EPS sensitivity

Bear -3.4%

$426.33

24.5x × $17.41 EPS

Multiple compresses to 5y low (24.5x), EPS misses 10%

Base +55.2%

$684.72

35.4x × $19.34 EPS

Multiple at 5y median (35.4x), EPS on consensus

Bull +86.1%

$821.28

38.6x × $21.28 EPS

Multiple expands to 5y high (38.6x), EPS beats 10%

Discounted cash flow

Pre-filled with the ticker's latest FCF, revenue growth, and share count. Tweak the assumptions — your edits persist for this ticker.

Current FCF ($M) Growth years Growth rate (%/yr) Terminal growth (%) Discount rate / WACC (%) Shares (M) Current price ($)

PV explicit

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PV terminal

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Fair $/share

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Upside

—

P/E fair value

EPS (forward) × target multiple. Target seeded from the ticker's 5y median P/E when available.

EPS ($) Target P/E Current price ($)

Fair value

—

Upside / downside

—

Implied P/E now

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Turn this read into a trade

Take the verdict over to the chart and the options picker — same grading the bot uses.

Best calls / puts Setup grades Chart

Options payoffs Risk & position sizing Stock valuation

Options payoffs

Tao of Trading classics

Intrinsic vs Extrinsic value

How much of the premium is real value (intrinsic) vs time/volatility decay (extrinsic). Extrinsic is what melts away as expiry approaches.

Option type Premium ($) Stock price ($) Strike ($)

Intrinsic

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Extrinsic

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% time premium

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Long call

Buy a call. Max loss = the premium you paid. Profit grows uncapped above breakeven (strike + premium).

Strike ($) Premium ($) Contracts Stock at expiry ($)

Max loss

—

Breakeven

—

Max profit

∞

P/L at exit

—

Long put

Buy a put. Max loss = premium. Max profit = (strike − premium) × 100, capped at zero stock price.

Strike ($) Premium ($) Contracts Stock at expiry ($)

Max loss

—

Breakeven

—

Max profit

—

P/L at exit

—

Call debit spread (bull call spread)

Buy a lower-strike call, sell a higher-strike call. Caps the upside in exchange for a cheaper debit and a defined max loss.

Long strike (buy) Short strike (sell) Long premium paid Short premium received Contracts Stock at expiry ($)

Net debit

—

Max loss

—

Breakeven

—

Max profit

—

P/L at exit

—

Put debit spread (bear put spread)

Buy a higher-strike put, sell a lower-strike put. Defined-risk way to play a drop without paying for the full put premium.

Long strike (buy, higher) Short strike (sell, lower) Long premium paid Short premium received Contracts Stock at expiry ($)

Net debit

—

Max loss

—

Breakeven

—

Max profit

—

P/L at exit

—

Risk & position sizing

Trade what you can afford to lose

Position size — % risk per trade

Given your account size, the % you're willing to lose on this idea, your entry, and your stop — how many shares should you buy?

Account size ($) % risk per trade Entry price ($) Stop price ($)

$ at risk

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$/share risk

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Position $

—

R-multiple — risk/reward read

"R" is your initial risk per share (entry − stop). Target gives you the R-multiple — anything < 2R is usually a pass.

Entry ($) Stop ($) Target ($)

1R (risk/share)

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Reward/share

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R-multiple

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Stock valuation

Long-term fair value math

Compound returns

Future value of an investment growing at a constant rate. Use the second input to also add a recurring monthly contribution.

Starting amount ($) Monthly contribution ($) Annual return (%) Years

Total contributed

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Total interest

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Future value

—

P/E fair value

Quick read on what a stock should be worth: forward EPS × your assumed P/E multiple. Compare to current price for upside %.

Forward EPS ($) Target P/E multiple Current price ($)

Fair value

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Upside / downside

—

Implied P/E now

—

Discounted cash flow (DCF)

Two-stage DCF: project free cash flow growing at the high-growth rate for N years, then a terminal value using the perpetual-growth rate. Divide by shares for fair value per share.

Current FCF ($M) Growth years Growth rate (%/yr) Terminal growth (%) Discount rate / WACC (%) Shares outstanding (M) Current stock price ($)

PV of forecast FCF

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PV of terminal

—

Fair $/share

—

Upside / downside

—

Calculators are educational tools — not trading advice. Real-world option prices include dealer skew, commissions, and assignment risk that these payoff charts ignore. Always conduct your own due diligence before placing any trade.