One guided read on whether this stock looks cheap or expensive: the verdict, the math behind it, how it compares, a set of calculators pre-loaded with MSFT's real numbers, and the hand-off to an actual trade.
Our one-line answer, plus the fair-value math it rests on.
Our best single answer on what one share is really worth — a two-stage discounted-cash-flow (DCF) fair value from the cash the business should generate, compared to today's price with the margin of safety and the inputs that drove it. The coverage pill shows how many lenses had enough data.
Second-opinion fair values and downside-next-to-upside scenarios. Expand the folds for the expert-level inputs.
A second opinion on the price: if this stock traded at a sensible, pre-set "fair" multiple for each yardstick below, here's what a share would be worth — and the upside or downside vs. today's price for each lens.
Three simple what-ifs — pessimistic, base, and optimistic P/E × EPS combinations — showing roughly where the share price could land in each case. A sensitivity table, not a prediction, so you can see the downside next to the upside.
Multiple compresses to 5y low (24.9x), EPS misses 10%
Multiple at 5y median (35.7x), EPS on consensus
Multiple expands to 5y high (41.8x), EPS beats 10%
The "hurdle rate" — how much return investors demand for the risk of owning this stock, built up from the risk-free rate + beta × equity premium, blended with after-tax cost of debt. A higher hurdle makes future cash worth less today, which pushes fair value down; this is the default discount rate the DCF calculator below uses.
We couldn't find this stock's "beta" — a measure of how jumpy it is versus the wider market — so the DCF falls back to a flat 9.0% discount rate instead of building one up from scratch.
What Wall Street analysts expect this company to earn (EPS) and sell (revenue) this year and next — the growth the current price is already built on — with the implied growth rates and forward multiples they produce.
Analyst consensus estimates unavailable from the data provider.
How our math-only DCF "margin of safety" read on MSFT has changed over time (snapshotted roughly weekly when the offline valuation cache refreshes). Separate from the blended verdict at the top of the page.
Expensive by its own standards, or versus its sector? Expand the folds you care about.
Is the stock expensive by its own standards? Each multiple below is compared to where this same company has traded over the past 6 years — cheaper than usual, about normal, or richer than usual. Verdicts are relative to its own history, not to peers.
Historical multiples use each year's reported share count.
Every calculator below starts from MSFT's numbers — change any assumption and the results recompute instantly.
Discounted cash flow estimates what a stock is worth today by adding up the spare cash the business is likely to generate in future years. We've pre-filled it with the ticker's latest free cash flow, revenue growth, and share count — tweak any assumption. The scoreboard up top tracks this card live.
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Earnings per share (trailing) times a "fair" price-to-earnings multiple gives a quick fair value — how many dollars investors will pay for each dollar the company earns. The target multiple is seeded from this stock's typical 5-year median P/E when available.
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Splits an option's price into two parts: the part backed by real value right now (intrinsic) and the part you're paying for time and uncertainty (extrinsic). The extrinsic part is what slowly melts away as expiration approaches.
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Buy a call. Max loss = the premium you paid. Profit grows uncapped above breakeven (strike + premium).
Buy a put. Max loss = premium. Max profit = (strike − premium) × 100, capped at zero stock price.
Buy a lower-strike call, sell a higher-strike call. Caps the upside in exchange for a cheaper debit and a defined max loss.
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Buy a higher-strike put, sell a lower-strike put. Defined-risk way to play a drop without paying for the full put premium.
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Given your account size, the % you're willing to lose on this idea, your entry, and your stop — how many shares should you buy?
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"R" is how much you'd lose per share if your stop is hit (entry minus stop). Comparing your profit target to that risk gives the R-multiple — anything under 2R (a 2-to-1 reward-to-risk) is usually a pass.
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Future value of an investment growing at a constant rate. Use the second input to also add a recurring monthly contribution.
Calculators are educational tools — not trading advice. Real-world option prices include dealer skew, commissions, and assignment risk that these payoff charts ignore. Always conduct your own due diligence before placing any trade.
Take the read over to the chart and options picker — or take the data with you.
Like what you see? Take this verdict over to the chart and the options picker to plan an actual trade — same grading the bot uses.
Grab MSFT's latest official filings (10-K / 10-Q / 8-K) and save the multiples & scenario charts as a PNG or PDF.
Download the latest SEC filings and save these ratio charts as a PNG or PDF.
